Escalating Tensions: Russian Military Advancements and Ukrainian Dependency
The situation is dire. The conflict is escalating with Russia increasing aerial attacks, and after more than two years of bloody aggression against Ukraine, there seems to be no end in sight to the war. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s options for what to do next range from bad to worse.
Zelensky has stated that Ukraine will not accept anything less than the return of all its territories, including the land annexed by Russia since 2014. However, due to some changes in the frontline last year, a portion of eastern and southern Ukraine, now under Russian control, seems less likely to be regained – about 20% of the country.
Engaging in dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war – which Zelensky has rejected until Russian troops leave Ukrainian soil – is politically toxic. The Ukrainian public vehemently opposes conceding territory, and Putin shows no willingness to accept anything less than Ukraine’s surrender to his demands.
The situation is grim. The conflict now escalates with serious consequences, as Ukrainians are dying in the battlefield every day. However, Ukrainians argue that a cessation of hostilities would only serve as a non-starter, as it would give Russians time to rearm their military.
Stalled Aid: Implications of Delayed Security Package from the United States
Ukraine relies on its Western allies for weapons, but a $60 billion security package from the United States has been stalled in Congress for six months. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government is struggling to address its manpower shortage, as efforts to recruit more soldiers have divided society.
Ukrainian and Western officials view Zelensky as being quite trapped. The most significant military supporter of Ukraine, assistance from the United States, has been blocked for months by Republicans in Congress. The hope is for Ukraine’s most advanced fighter jets – the American-made F-16s – to enter the war by the end of this year, but in limited quantities, meaning they won’t be game-changers. NATO countries are still exercising restraint in their support, as evidenced by the recent uproar when French President Emmanuel Macron said that European countries should not refuse to send troops.
“How will Zelensky get out of this situation? I have no information,” said one Ukrainian lawmaker interviewed for this article, who, like other officials and politicians interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the highly sensitive politics involved. “And surely, that worries me.”
Internal Struggles: Ukraine’s Efforts to Address Military Shortcomings
The most challenging task for Zelensky will be managing his country’s expectations. Support among Ukrainians is high for him, but after two years of war and heavy casualties, “unity is fading,” said a Western diplomat in Kyiv.
Timofiy Mylovanov, a professor at the Kyiv School of Economics and former government minister, said the fight could go on for years. Mylovanov said, “It’s an unpleasant thought, but when some people say it could take decades, no one disputes it.”
This was supposed to be an election year for Zelensky, but Ukraine’s constitution under martial law imposes a ban on elections, and some officials here worry that Russia will try to present Zelensky as an illegitimate ruler when he serves more than his elected five-year term – despite Putin’s repeated disregard for term limits.
Zelensky will also have to deliver on his promises – which he regularly repeats – of returning Ukraine to its 1991 borders, including Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed illegally and claimed a decade ago.
“Smart people know that this is not realistic,” said the Ukrainian lawmaker, adding that political leadership “needs to organize this rhetoric around some point.”
The pessimism about the prospects of the Ukrainian warzone has increased in recent months because Russian forces have once again gained the upper hand on the battlefield, mainly due to a shortage of Ukrainian troops and ammunition.
Political Maneuvering: Uncertainties Surrounding US Assistance and European Support
Kyiv is now considering the possibility of cuts in assistance from the United States. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) recently suggested that the package could be put to a vote next week, but hopes for amendments, such as possibly providing funds as loans, which would further burden Ukraine’s already heavy debt.
While assistance may be approved soon, the delay has indicated that future aid is not guaranteed, especially with the U.S. presidential election this year. Officials are also concerned that Europe lacks the production capacity to fill the American shortfall, particularly in artillery and air-defense ammunition, which are Ukraine’s most critical needs.
Zelensky has said that Ukraine is prioritizing domestic production but so far can only meet a small portion of its needs. Russian forces are now conducting six times more shelling than Ukrainians in the front line.
Economic Pressures: Impact of Military Spending and Foreign Aid on Ukraine’s Economy
“Look, we’ve been without ammunition for half a year already. This is definitely not enough,” a senior Ukrainian officer said. “Okay, it will get even worse. So what? What other options do we have? If the partners who promised us ammunition do not provide it, then the situation will certainly deteriorate. But America’s image in the world will also be tarnished.”
A year ago, Kyiv was cautiously optimistic as Ukraine prepared for a major offensive with modern tanks and combat vehicles provided by Western allies. However, the offensive failed to achieve significant gains, and the new weapons did not prove decisive.
Ukrainian attacks have intensified, targeting military infrastructure and fuel depots deep in Russia, but Kyiv’s forces are still under pressure in the front line and have recently been pushed back.
Ukrainians have sacrificed themselves for a long war. Some have been fighting since 2014, when Russia first instigated conflict in eastern Ukraine.
A Western diplomat said, “Ukraine does not have the power to launch another offensive.” “There are two scenarios. One scenario is that they receive support to maintain defensive lines. …The other is that there is not enough support, and Ukraine will defend itself in any way, with strict and reduced manpower.”
Military Preparedness: Evaluating Ukraine’s Defense Capabilities and Recruitment Challenges
The diplomat said that if Kyiv had to face the Russian army with insufficient support this year, casualties and regional damage would increase, pushing Ukraine back. The diplomat said Ukraine and its allies should prepare for 2025 as “not a year of peace talks but another year of war.” “If the West wants peace, it should not only respond to Ukraine’s current needs but also provide everything necessary for Ukraine to enter an aggressive mode in 2024 and earn sufficient benefits in 2025.”
However, Ukraine will have to meet some needs on its own. Field commanders have reported a shortage of troops in the front line, especially in the infantry, which is deployed at the most advanced positions. Military commanders have emphasized extensive recruitment efforts, but Zelensky has expressed doubt, while Kyiv says Moscow plans to recruit 300,000 more soldiers.
Zelensky recently signed a law reducing Ukraine’s minimum draft age to 25, but he said that recruiting nearly 500,000 soldiers, as suggested by former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, is not feasible. New Chief of the General Staff Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said that after a personnel audit, the figure of 500,000 “has become quite small.” Meanwhile, thousands of amendments have been made in a bill in parliament to broaden the criteria for who can be recruited.
A Western diplomat in Kyiv said that Zelensky’s administration and the Ukrainian parliament are playing “political ping pong” on conscription because it is unpopular. While thousands volunteered to fight willingly at the start of the war, some who did not sign up then want to now.
The diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said, “No one really wants to take responsibility for this point.”
“But it will have to be done.” “I mean, you can’t go on like this. I’ve heard about people who were at the front and now can’t stand it. And then when they come back here on leave and see all those young guys who could be there, I get angry about it. So you also get social tension around it.
Large-scale conscription will also create economic challenges. Money cannot come directly from foreign aid for soldiers’ salaries, and some industries are already facing a shortage of workers. Ukraine’s economy is under pressure from repeated missile and drone attacks targeting energy information technology.